Clear the Obstruction

Value Finder – Round 21

NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder – Round 21

NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder

A quick note about me: I’m a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I’ve started to share with this sub.

The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping.

I’m more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.

Performance so far this year

If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game:

Best Value

You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 60.9%;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6) $3.20 WIN $10.00 $32.00 $122.00
Bulldogs (7) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $112.00
Eels (7) $2.35 WIN $10.00 $23.50 $125.50
Dragons (8) $1.81 WIN $10.00 $18.10 $133.60
Panthers (9) $1.82 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Bulldogs (10) $2.00 WIN $10.00 $20.00 $133.60
Warriors (10) $1.75 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Rabbitohs (10) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $137.60
Broncos (11) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $151.60
Storm (11) $1.47 LOSE $10.00 $141.60
Raiders (12) $1.73 WIN $10.00 $17.30 $148.90
Knights (12) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $138.90
Cowboys (13) $2.05 WIN $10.00 $20.50 $149.40
Knights (14) $3.20 LOSE $10.00 $139.40
Knights (15) $3.82 LOSE $10.00 $129.40
Bulldogs (15) $1.69 LOSE $10.00 $119.40
Samoa Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE $10.00 $109.40
QLD Line (Rep) $1.92 WIN $10.00 $19.20 $118.60
Roosters (16) $2.20 LOSE $10.00 $108.60
Titans (16) $2.65 WIN $10.00 $26.50 $125.10
Storm (17) $1.58 WIN $10.00 $15.80 $130.90
Raiders (17) $1.45 WIN $10.00 $14.50 $135.40
Knights (18) $2.10 WIN $10.00 $21.00 $146.40
Broncos (18) $1.65 LOSE $10.00 $136.40
Raiders (19) $3.00 LOSE $10.00 $126.40
Sea Eagles (19) $2.60 LOSE $10.00 $116.40
Bulldogs (20) $2.85 WIN $10.00 $28.50 $134.90
Titans (20) $2.80 WIN $10.00 $28.00 $152.90
Broncos (20) $1.80 WIN $10.00 $18.00 $160.90

Worst Value

You would have an ROI of -49.90% ;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6) $2.55 LOSE 10 $90.00
Broncos (6) $2.55 WIN 10 $25.50 $105.50
Panthers (7) $1.49 LOSE 10 $95.50
Knights (7) $2.60 WIN 10 $26.00 $111.50
Sea Eagles (8) $1.60 LOSE 10 $101.50
Cowboys (8) $1.42 LOSE 10 $91.50
Eels (9) $2.20 LOSE 10 $81.50
Sea Eagles (10) $2.58 WIN 10 $25.80 $97.30
Raiders (11) $3.25 LOSE 10 $87.30
Cowboys (11) $2.05 LOSE 10 $77.30
Eels (12) $2.70 LOSE 10 $67.30
Titans (12) $3.60 LOSE 10 $57.30
Tigers (13) $1.80 LOSE 10 $47.30
Sea Eagles (14) $2.30 LOSE 10 $37.30
Sea Eagles (15) $3.25 LOSE 10 $27.30
Broncos (15) $2.50 WIN 10 $25.00 $42.30
Fiji Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE 10 $32.30
Broncos (16) $1.65 WIN 10 $16.50 $38.80
Sharks (18) $1.67 WIN 10 $16.70 $45.50
Tigers (18) $3.15 WIN 10 $31.50 $67.00
Panthers (19) $1.96 LOSE $10 $57.00
Eels (20) $4.20 LOSE $10 $47.00
Storm (20) $1.31 WIN 10 $13.10 $50.10

Last Week

Last week all 3 best-value teams hit, with the Bulldogs and Titans providing some of the best value so far this season and the Broncos generating an under-pressure victory. Alternatively – both worst-value teams were poor choices with the Storm routing the Raiders convincingly and the Eels disintegrating in the final moments of their match against the Rabbitohs. Despite the Eels being the value team in the match-up; there is some inherent safety being on the better side in a head-to-head market, which clearly manifested itself in the closing moments of their match.

Best Value

Newcastle Knights

All things equal; I believe the team named for the Knights is better than the Tigers and after factoring in home-field, they have significant value in this game. I am very interested to see how Pearce, Watson and Ponga cooperate, however theoretically I like the balance they provide. Another good lineup decision in the Knights favour is Ross being removed from the line-up, although my confidence in Danny Levi as a player is waning rapidly.

Odds: $2.10 V Tigers; Line: +1.5.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

I have the Storm and the Rabbitohs in the same tier, and this game will likely be a microcosm of how the Rabbitohs will perform in the finals against quality opposition in a marquee game. I have for most of this season believed the Rabbitohs are the best team in the competition, and I am expecting this game to be a confirmation of my belief and being outsiders playing at home has allowed them to hold significant value.

Odds: $2.20 V Storm; Line: +2.5

Worst Value

Brisbane Broncos

Just like that the Broncos momentary period of value has faded rapidly. $1.30 playing away against a Bulldogs team who have played nicely in the weeks following significant personnel changes. It goes without saying the Broncos should be favourites for this game, however such short odds are ludicrous.

Odds: $1.30 @ Bulldogs; Line: -9.5

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers current valuation is intriguing and is largely based on theoretical value which was displayed at times in the beginning of the season. In reality however, their value is far less than currently displayed through their odds. It’s possible they are a better team than they have displayed in the preceding weeks, yet they are being valued as if a return to their early season performance is a certainty. As a rule of thumb – avoid teams that have theoretical value whose performances fail to provide value in reality (see the Cowboys and Eels for the majority of this year).

Odds: $1.38 V Raiders; Line: -8

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