Clear the Obstruction

Value Finder – Round 22

A quick note about me: I’m a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis some of which I’ve started to share.

The purpose of these threads is to identify which teams current have gambling value, and which teams do not. A team’s value is subject to several external factors; recent performance, line-ups, strength of opponent, venue, rest, club stability, motivation, expected crowd, travel, where the bookies set the odds and how the public influence the odds with action after the market opens.

Although the bookie edge for a head-to-head market is around 5%; you can still find value weekly in the NRL by using a combination of statistical and subjective analysis.

Performance so far this year

If you had an initial investment of $100, and staked $10 per game:

Best Value

You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 62.9%;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6) $3.20 WIN $10.00 $32.00 $122.00
Bulldogs (7) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $112.00
Eels (7) $2.35 WIN $10.00 $23.50 $125.50
Dragons (8) $1.81 WIN $10.00 $18.10 $133.60
Panthers (9) $1.82 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Bulldogs (10) $2.00 WIN $10.00 $20.00 $133.60
Warriors (10) $1.75 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Rabbitohs (10) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $137.60
Broncos (11) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $151.60
Storm (11) $1.47 LOSE $10.00 $141.60
Raiders (12) $1.73 WIN $10.00 $17.30 $148.90
Knights (12) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $138.90
Cowboys (13) $2.05 WIN $10.00 $20.50 $149.40
Knights (14) $3.20 LOSE $10.00 $139.40
Knights (15) $3.82 LOSE $10.00 $129.40
Bulldogs (15) $1.69 LOSE $10.00 $119.40
Samoa Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE $10.00 $109.40
QLD Line (Rep) $1.92 WIN $10.00 $19.20 $118.60
Roosters (16) $2.20 LOSE $10.00 $108.60
Titans (16) $2.65 WIN $10.00 $26.50 $125.10
Storm (17) $1.58 WIN $10.00 $15.80 $130.90
Raiders (17) $1.45 WIN $10.00 $14.50 $135.40
Knights (18) $2.10 WIN $10.00 $21.00 $146.40
Broncos (18) $1.65 LOSE $10.00 $136.40
Raiders (19) $3.00 LOSE $10.00 $126.40
Sea Eagles (19) $2.60 LOSE $10.00 $116.40
Bulldogs (20) $2.85 WIN $10.00 $28.50 $134.90
Titans (20) $2.80 WIN $10.00 $28.00 $152.90
Broncos (20) $1.80 WIN $10.00 $18.00 $160.90
Knights (21) $2.10 LOSE $10.00 $150.90
Rabbitohs (21) $2.20 WIN $10.00 $22.00 $162.90

Worst Value

You would have an ROI of -56.10% ;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6) $2.55 LOSE 10 $90.00
Broncos (6) $2.55 WIN 10 $25.50 $105.50
Panthers (7) $1.49 LOSE 10 $95.50
Knights (7) $2.60 WIN 10 $26.00 $111.50
Sea Eagles (8) $1.60 LOSE 10 $101.50
Cowboys (8) $1.42 LOSE 10 $91.50
Eels (9) $2.20 LOSE 10 $81.50
Sea Eagles (10) $2.58 WIN 10 $25.80 $97.30
Raiders (11) $3.25 LOSE 10 $87.30
Cowboys (11) $2.05 LOSE 10 $77.30
Eels (12) $2.70 LOSE 10 $67.30
Titans (12) $3.60 LOSE 10 $57.30
Tigers (13) $1.80 LOSE 10 $47.30
Sea Eagles (14) $2.30 LOSE 10 $37.30
Sea Eagles (15) $3.25 LOSE 10 $27.30
Broncos (15) $2.50 WIN 10 $25.00 $42.30
Fiji Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE 10 $32.30
Broncos (16) $1.65 WIN 10 $16.50 $38.80
Sharks (18) $1.67 WIN 10 $16.70 $45.50
Tigers (18) $3.15 WIN 10 $31.50 $67.00
Panthers (19) $1.96 LOSE $10 $57.00
Eels (20) $4.20 LOSE $10 $47.00
Storm (20) $1.31 WIN 10 $13.10 $50.10
Broncos (21) $1.30 LOSE 10 $40.10
Panthers (21) $1.38 WIN 10 $13.80 $43.90

Last Week

Best Value – Knights, Rabbitohs

A mixed week for best value;

The Knights despite losing Pearce halfway through the game were still able to remain competitive until a 75th minute field goal put the Tigers up by 7. Despite this, it was clear the Knights did not have value in this game, although the performance of the Tigers is certainly something to monitor – since their midseason line-up changes, their value has plummeted, and their performances currently do not match their valuation.

Alternatively, I had the Rabbitohs pegged nicely. Along with the Roosters and Storm, they are clearly the 3 best teams in the league as it stands and being pushed out to $2.20 at home was an incredible undervaluation for this team – in honesty, I think the Rabbitohs are the best team in the NRL.

Worst Value – Broncos, Panthers

Both worst value selections last week were close to the mark; the Broncos lost to a significantly undervalued Bulldogs team, and the Panthers were on track to lose until a vintage Raiders performance, and despite winning it was very clear at $1.38 they were overvalued.

Best Value

Gold Coast Titans
Titans

The Panthers have been hammered with action this week following their coaching issues, under the subjective opinion that the players now rid of Griffin will seek to make a statement by reverting to their early-season form. This has allowed the Titans to float, and they now represent significant value. I agree that Griffin was not a fantastic coach, however I disagree that the Panthers were ever an elite team – in their first 11 games this season they faced only 2 top-8 teams (Rabbitohs rd2, Sharks rd7). Their early season form was inflated through the easiest opening schedule since I started recording metrics, and one win against the Dragons in round 12 has formed the cornerstone for anointing the Panthers as an elite team held back by poor coaching. Heading into that game, 4 of the Dragons last 5 games were; Warriors, Storm, Rabbitohs, and Roosters, and a component to their loss was certainly fatigue through facing multiple quality teams beforehand. In all, I don’t think the Panthers were ever an elite team, and the money which has filtered through is based off a theoretical value which doesn’t exist allowing the Titans represent some very solid value.

Odds: $3.00 V Panthers; Line: +7.5.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Cbull

Somehow, the Bulldogs remain undervalued despite defeating the Tigers and Broncos in consecutive weeks. Since round 5, they have covered 60% of their lines and have shown consistency and quality in the weeks following losing Mbye and Woods. I expect the Bulldogs to hold their value against an unimpressive Manly outfit.

Odds: $2.30 @ Sea Eagles; Line: +3.5

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Rabbitohs

Ideally, I try and avoid selecting the same team in consecutive weeks, however I find it absurd to have the Rabbitohs as even odds with the Roosters despite playing at home. Something which has largely gone un-adjusted by value is the Roosters loss of Luke Keary, who formed an integral part of their play. The Rabbitohs are the better team at near full-strength playing at home, yet are not valued like it.

Odds: $1.91 V Roosters; Line -0.5

Worst Value

St George-Illawarra Dragons

Dargs

I have no answers for the way the Dragons offence has conducted itself in the last few weeks, and I’m not convinced it will ever return. Their ball-movement is clunky, slow and failing to engage the defence to make decisions. It’s possible the Dragons can return to their early-season guile, but at $1.45, I’m not risking capitol waiting to find out if they do.

Odds: $1.45 @ Eels; Line: -6.5

Wests Tigers

Tigers

It seems every week the Tigers are involved in these threads, either as a worst-value selection or their opponent appears as a best value selection. As mentioned above, I’m largely unimpressed by their performances so far this year – they have clearly the worst offence in the league and a now middling defence. I understand the theoretical value of potential with Farrah and Mbye now in the team, however I am yet to see this theoretical value manifest itself in performance.

Odds: $2.40 @ Raiders; Line: +4

https://old.reddit.com/r/nrl/comments/95r3fo/nrl_betting_tipping_value_finder_round_22/

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