Clear the Obstruction

Value Finder – Round 23

A quick note about me: I’m a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis some of which I’ve started to share.

The purpose of these threads is to identify which teams current have gambling value, and which teams do not. A team’s value is subject to several external factors; recent performance, line-ups, strength of opponent, venue, rest, club stability, motivation, expected crowd, travel, where the bookies set the odds and how the public influence the odds with action after the market opens.

Although the bookie edge for a head-to-head market is around 5%; you can still find value weekly in the NRL by using a combination of statistical and subjective analysis.

Performance so far this year

If you had an initial investment of $100, and staked $10 per game:

Best Value

You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 32.9%;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6) $3.20 WIN $10.00 $32.00 $122.00
Bulldogs (7) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $112.00
Eels (7) $2.35 WIN $10.00 $23.50 $125.50
Dragons (8) $1.81 WIN $10.00 $18.10 $133.60
Panthers (9) $1.82 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Bulldogs (10) $2.00 WIN $10.00 $20.00 $133.60
Warriors (10) $1.75 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Rabbitohs (10) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $137.60
Broncos (11) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $151.60
Storm (11) $1.47 LOSE $10.00 $141.60
Raiders (12) $1.73 WIN $10.00 $17.30 $148.90
Knights (12) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $138.90
Cowboys (13) $2.05 WIN $10.00 $20.50 $149.40
Knights (14) $3.20 LOSE $10.00 $139.40
Knights (15) $3.82 LOSE $10.00 $129.40
Bulldogs (15) $1.69 LOSE $10.00 $119.40
Samoa Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE $10.00 $109.40
QLD Line (Rep) $1.92 WIN $10.00 $19.20 $118.60
Roosters (16) $2.20 LOSE $10.00 $108.60
Titans (16) $2.65 WIN $10.00 $26.50 $125.10
Storm (17) $1.58 WIN $10.00 $15.80 $130.90
Raiders (17) $1.45 WIN $10.00 $14.50 $135.40
Knights (18) $2.10 WIN $10.00 $21.00 $146.40
Broncos (18) $1.65 LOSE $10.00 $136.40
Raiders (19) $3.00 LOSE $10.00 $126.40
Sea Eagles (19) $2.60 LOSE $10.00 $116.40
Bulldogs (20) $2.85 WIN $10.00 $28.50 $134.90
Titans (20) $2.80 WIN $10.00 $28.00 $152.90
Broncos (20) $1.80 WIN $10.00 $18.00 $160.90
Knights (21) $2.10 LOSE $10.00 $150.90
Rabbitohs (21) $2.20 WIN $10.00 $22.00 $162.90
Titans (22) $3.00 LOSE $10.00 $152.90
Bulldogs (22) $2.30 LOSE $10.00 $142.90
Rabbitohs (22) $1.91 LOSE $10.00 $132.90

Worst Value

You would have an ROI of -52.10% ;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6) $2.55 LOSE 10 $90.00
Broncos (6) $2.55 WIN 10 $25.50 $105.50
Panthers (7) $1.49 LOSE 10 $95.50
Knights (7) $2.60 WIN 10 $26.00 $111.50
Sea Eagles (8) $1.60 LOSE 10 $101.50
Cowboys (8) $1.42 LOSE 10 $91.50
Eels (9) $2.20 LOSE 10 $81.50
Sea Eagles (10) $2.58 WIN 10 $25.80 $97.30
Raiders (11) $3.25 LOSE 10 $87.30
Cowboys (11) $2.05 LOSE 10 $77.30
Eels (12) $2.70 LOSE 10 $67.30
Titans (12) $3.60 LOSE 10 $57.30
Tigers (13) $1.80 LOSE 10 $47.30
Sea Eagles (14) $2.30 LOSE 10 $37.30
Sea Eagles (15) $3.25 LOSE 10 $27.30
Broncos (15) $2.50 WIN 10 $25.00 $42.30
Fiji Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE 10 $32.30
Broncos (16) $1.65 WIN 10 $16.50 $38.80
Sharks (18) $1.67 WIN 10 $16.70 $45.50
Tigers (18) $3.15 WIN 10 $31.50 $67.00
Panthers (19) $1.96 LOSE $10 $57.00
Eels (20) $4.20 LOSE $10 $47.00
Storm (20) $1.31 WIN 10 $13.10 $50.10
Broncos (21) $1.30 LOSE 10 $40.10
Panthers (21) $1.38 WIN 10 $13.80 $43.90
Dragons (22) $1.45 LOSE 10 $33.90
Tigers (22) $2.40 WIN 10 $24.00 $47.90

Last Week

Best Value – Titans, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs

Three tips three losses for the best value teams – unfortunately the Titans while having significant value @ $3 concede a try on the last tackle of the Panthers set with <30seconds left. Although the Titans had significant value; the Bulldogs or Rabbitohs did not so it’s hard to fall into the gamblers hole of almost winning after two consecutive poor selections

Worst Value – Dragons, Tigers

Pegged the Dragons nicely who had some of the worst value so far this year paying $1.45 and losing by >30; and surprisingly given their start the Tigers almost managed to hand the Raiders a loss in the dying moments, although the Tigers were easily the value team – another poor selection

Best Value

Gold Coast Titans

Titans

As a gambler, chasing losses is one of the more self-destructive moves you can make. While I’m not a fan of selecting the same team as best value in back-to-back weeks – I really cant fathom the Titans current price. Even before coaching dramas are triaged, the Sea Eagles should not be such heavy favoutires against a similarly ranked team like the Titans, and while the Gold Coast are sporadic in their performances – they are not as poor as their current value.

Odds: $2.85 @ Manly; Line: +6.5.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Cbull

Again, the Bulldogs find their way into this thread. While I’m not ecstatic about having them here in consecutive weeks, especially after their performance in round 22 – they are a healthy price against an erratic Warriors outfit. While I’m not one for overreactions to small samples, especially with young halves, Lachlan Lewis is an important player for the way this Bulldogs team plays both offensively and defensively, and his return after missing last week should not go underestimated.

Odds: $2.55 V Warriors; Line: +4.5

Worst Value

North Queensland Cowboys

Cows

After starting the season with extraordinarily poor value, the Cowboys have trended towards being the value side in recent weeks. This value resurgence seems to be over with their current valuation this week playing away against a steaming Sharks side with their best player Taumololo suspended. I’m usually don’t like predicting heavy score lines, but this could get ugly for the Cowboys who’s current value has been inflated in the preceding weeks by struggling teams such as the Broncos and Knights.

Odds: $3.10 @ Sharks; Line: +8.5

Sydney Roosters

Roosters

This could be disingenuous to an outstanding team, but I’m not sure I like the Roosters in this game. I acknowledge I have poorly rated the Raiders for most of this season, however playing at home against a Roosters team with limited motivation before the finals is not accurately reflected in the current odds. While the Roosters outplayed the Rabbitohs last week, I’m still uncertain about Mattherson in the halves and some of their rotation forwards – Aubusson and Napa in particular. This could be a long-shot, but I’m willing to take the gamble to bet against the Roosters this week.

Odds: $1.40 @ Raiders; Line: -6.5

 

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