Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +31.00% Profit on Investment. Winning 60% of Tips with combined odds of $2.43
Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: -14.00% Profit on Investment. Winning 45.45% of Tips with combined odds of $2.03
Canberra Raiders $3.25
After losing Bateman I told myself I wasn’t going to bite on the Raiders for a period given how he has transformed their edge defence on last season, but I think this could be a good match-up – the best defence against the best offence. There’s also a component to the Roosters performance, especially offensively, that will regress slightly as the season goes on and facing an exceptional defence might pressure their offence in ways they’ve yet to fully experience this season. It’s likely the Roosters win, and they should certainly be favourites, but at this current price the Raiders have value. Injuries to key players tend not to leak into overall team performance immediately as replacement players come-in motivated and ready to prove themselves, often injury woes might not manifest for a couple of weeks. Essentially, this is a bet on the Raiders defensive structure allowing them to compete.
Newcastle Knights $1.60
I’ll come clean – I wasn’t a huge fan of the Knights heading into the season, but after a shaky start they have won me over. Their defensive improvement on last year has been immense, and with more continuity their attack will likely continue to improve. The Bulldogs are currently priced very awkwardly given their total performance over the season with only very brief periods of average quality football. The Knights could have turned a corner in the last two weeks and should have all the motivation moving into a game which could catapult them into a genuine team.
Melbourne Storm $1.42
Melbourne haven’t played a quality game of football in 6 weeks and are moving closer and closer to being priced on theoretical potential and not performance. In years-past whenever they would have lulls they would often bounce-back, but this is a fundamentally different team and it’s safe to wonder whether they will ever find a consistent rhythm. They have yet to effectively resolve their halfback situation especially while Smith seems to distrust whoever fills that role and Munster has shown a startling lack of improvement. They are also facing a quality Eels side who have hopefully learnt from their previous misgivings the week after the last Bankwest game. Investing in the Storm at this price could be dangerous.
Cronulla Sharks $1.65
This is an awkward position for the Sharks to be in currently, they’ve been hit with injuries, managed to survive through will and motivation, now they face a largely flat team in a likely mostly empty neutral venue. So much of the Sharks success against adversity this season is based in motivational factors, and this game could certainly be one where they fail to rise after the mental fatigue of their previous few weeks.
|Sea Eagles (7)||$2.28||WIN|
|Sea Eagles (4)||$2.45||WIN|