Clear the Obstruction

Value Finder | Round 10

Using a combination of statistical analysis and subjective influences to predict gambling value in head-to-head markets each week in the NRL

Performance so far this season:

Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +33.00% Profit on Investment. Winning 61.11% of Tips with combined odds of $2.39

Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: -3.30% Profit on Investment. Winning 53.85% of Tips with combined odds of $1.95

BEST VALUE

Canberra Raiders $2.15

The Raiders are without a couple of key players, namely Rapana and Bateman, however hold strong value returning back to Canberra after 3 weeks on the road. Despite conceding 30 points last week against the Roosters they have an elite defence which should be well equipped to frustrate a roaring Rabbitohs attack. The Bunnies in recent weeks have yet to really face a defence which has made them work for points, in the last 5 weeks they have played: Cowboys (15th defensively), Broncos (10th defensively), Panthers (12th defensively), Bulldogs (14th defensively), Warriors (13th defensively), so while they do have an exceptional attack the Raiders may pressure their offence in ways they haven’t experienced for a number of weeks. Underdogs, at home, in a likely cold night in Canberra I think the Raiders have outstanding value

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles $2.45

This is a nice position for the Sea Eagles. They’ve managed to craft a resolute defence under Hassler which has enabled them to grind their way to wins despite their injuries, and now they’re starting to take shape as a functional NRL team again. Croker returning to partner Elgey gives them two adequate halves, Fonua-Blake who is one of the best props in the NRL is back and a hungry Walker is slots into the centres. The Sharks have been determined yet largely underwhelming and despite being at home this is much closer than the implied probability of odds suggest.

Gold Coast Titans $1.67

I’m not a big motivational gambler, but this tip is largely based on motivation. The Titans were embarrassed last week in a FTA-game where the Sharks essentially rolled-over and should’ve been beaten. Their decision-making was deplorable and like always their defence had holes shot through it. Returning to C-BUS, against the only team in the league worse than themselves after the embarrassment of last week should see them motivated and determined, if they don’t their season is over.

WORST VALUE

New Zealand Warriors $2.10

The Warriors yo-yo heads to Penrith after showing some promise and winning last weekend. While their win against the Dragons was impressive, I think it had as much to do with McGregor’s woeful mishandling of his bench than it did with Warriors excellence. Having the Warriors in any tip is a volatile gamble given their motivation goes up and down constantly but playing away after a somewhat hollow win is a nice spot to take the other side.

North Queensland Cowboys $1.70

I’m baffled The Cowboys are favourites heading into the game. They’re teetering on the edge of no return for this season. Every week they are handicapped with the promise of them getting it together finally, and yet it’s near on 18 months and it hasn’t happened. They have a handful of outstanding players; Morgan, Taumololo, McLean, but are consistently let-down by a schematically poor offence and below-average defenders. I’m not a fan of Asiata playing five-eighth, he has been roasted defensively playing wide on the goal-line and struggles to handle strong angled runners. Their right-edge is just as bad with the immobility of Hess and Scott defending next to each other. The Eels are coming off a drubbing and are clearly the better side, there’s always the possibility the Cowboys stumble into some individual brilliance but consistency is all but a dream for them at this point.

History

Best Value:

TeamOddsOutcome
Broncos (1)$2.28LOSE
Rabbitohs (1)$2.48WIN
Bulldogs (4)$5.75LOSE
Dragons (4)$2.10WIN
Tigers (4)$2.50LOSE
Sharks (5)$2.55LOSE
Titans (5)$2.30WIN
Storm (6)$1.91LOSE
Titans (6) $1.91WIN
Bulldogs (6)$3.40LOSE
Sea Eagles (7)$2.28WIN
Warriors (7)$1.91WIN
Eels (8)$1.95WIN
Raiders (8)$1.65WIN
Rabbitohs (8)$1.52WIN
Raiders (9) $3.25LOSE
Knights (9) $1.60WIN
Broncos (9)$1.60WIN

Worst Value:

TeamOddsOutcome
Cowboys (1)$1.85WIN
Panthers (1)$1.55LOSE
Sea Eagles (4)$2.45WIN
Cowboys (4)$1.90LOSE
Storm (5)$1.33WIN
Bulldogs (5)$2.65LOSE
Eels (5)$2.40LOSE
Panthers(6)$2.20LOSE
Tigers (7)$1.63WIN
Knights (8)$2.34WIN
Bulldogs (8)$2.00LOSE
Storm (9)$1.42WIN
Sharks (9)$1.65WIN

Originally posted on r/NRL Punters thread u/cookedcowboys