Value Finder – Round 24

A quick note about me: I’m a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis some of which I’ve started to share.

The purpose of these threads is to identify which teams current have gambling value, and which teams do not. A team’s value is subject to several external factors; recent performance, line-ups, strength of opponent, venue, rest, club stability, motivation, expected crowd, travel, where the bookies set the odds and how the public influence the odds with action after the market opens.

Although the bookie edge for a head-to-head market is around 5%; you can still find value weekly in the NRL by using a combination of statistical and subjective analysis.

 

Performance so far this year

If you had an initial investment of $100, and staked $10 per game:

Best Value

You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 66.9%;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6) $3.20 WIN $10.00 $32.00 $122.00
Bulldogs (7) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $112.00
Eels (7) $2.35 WIN $10.00 $23.50 $125.50
Dragons (8) $1.81 WIN $10.00 $18.10 $133.60
Panthers (9) $1.82 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Bulldogs (10) $2.00 WIN $10.00 $20.00 $133.60
Warriors (10) $1.75 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Rabbitohs (10) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $137.60
Broncos (11) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $151.60
Storm (11) $1.47 LOSE $10.00 $141.60
Raiders (12) $1.73 WIN $10.00 $17.30 $148.90
Knights (12) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $138.90
Cowboys (13) $2.05 WIN $10.00 $20.50 $149.40
Knights (14) $3.20 LOSE $10.00 $139.40
Knights (15) $3.82 LOSE $10.00 $129.40
Bulldogs (15) $1.69 LOSE $10.00 $119.40
Samoa Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE $10.00 $109.40
QLD Line (Rep) $1.92 WIN $10.00 $19.20 $118.60
Roosters (16) $2.20 LOSE $10.00 $108.60
Titans (16) $2.65 WIN $10.00 $26.50 $125.10
Storm (17) $1.58 WIN $10.00 $15.80 $130.90
Raiders (17) $1.45 WIN $10.00 $14.50 $135.40
Knights (18) $2.10 WIN $10.00 $21.00 $146.40
Broncos (18) $1.65 LOSE $10.00 $136.40
Raiders (19) $3.00 LOSE $10.00 $126.40
Sea Eagles (19) $2.60 LOSE $10.00 $116.40
Bulldogs (20) $2.85 WIN $10.00 $28.50 $134.90
Titans (20) $2.80 WIN $10.00 $28.00 $152.90
Broncos (20) $1.80 WIN $10.00 $18.00 $160.90
Knights (21) $2.10 LOSE $10.00 $150.90
Rabbitohs (21) $2.20 WIN $10.00 $22.00 $162.90
Titans (22) $3.00 LOSE $10.00 $152.90
Bulldogs (22) $2.30 LOSE $10.00 $142.90
Rabbitohs (22) $1.91 LOSE $10.00 $132.90
Titans (23) $2.85 WIN $10.00 $28.50 $151.40
Bulldogs (23) $2.55 WIN $10.00 $25.50 $166.90

Worst Value

You would have an ROI of -77.10% ;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6) $2.55 LOSE 10 $90.00
Broncos (6) $2.55 WIN 10 $25.50 $105.50
Panthers (7) $1.49 LOSE 10 $95.50
Knights (7) $2.60 WIN 10 $26.00 $111.50
Sea Eagles (8) $1.60 LOSE 10 $101.50
Cowboys (8) $1.42 LOSE 10 $91.50
Eels (9) $2.20 LOSE 10 $81.50
Sea Eagles (10) $2.58 WIN 10 $25.80 $97.30
Raiders (11) $3.25 LOSE 10 $87.30
Cowboys (11) $2.05 LOSE 10 $77.30
Eels (12) $2.70 LOSE 10 $67.30
Titans (12) $3.60 LOSE 10 $57.30
Tigers (13) $1.80 LOSE 10 $47.30
Sea Eagles (14) $2.30 LOSE 10 $37.30
Sea Eagles (15) $3.25 LOSE 10 $27.30
Broncos (15) $2.50 WIN 10 $25.00 $42.30
Fiji Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE 10 $32.30
Broncos (16) $1.65 WIN 10 $16.50 $38.80
Sharks (18) $1.67 WIN 10 $16.70 $45.50
Tigers (18) $3.15 WIN 10 $31.50 $67.00
Panthers (19) $1.96 LOSE $10 $57.00
Eels (20) $4.20 LOSE $10 $47.00
Storm (20) $1.31 WIN 10 $13.10 $50.10
Broncos (21) $1.30 LOSE 10 $40.10
Panthers (21) $1.38 WIN 10 $13.80 $43.90
Dragons (22) $1.45 LOSE 10 $33.90
Tigers (22) $2.40 WIN 10 $24.00 $47.90
Cowboys (23) $3.10 LOSE $10.00 $37.90
Roosters (23) $1.40 LOSE $10.00 $27.90

 

Last Week

Best Value – Titans, Bulldogs

Both best-value team hit with strong performance. Although on the surface their value was immense, both games had the potential to lose. Rhyse Martin managing to kick all 4 goals was the difference between the Bulldogs and Warriors; and the Titans defence was shaky once again conceding 34 points yet generating an unlikely win, but realistically in sports gambling results are always volatile.

Worst Value – Cowboys, Roosters

The Cowboys were unlucky not to cover their line with Asiata’s sinbinning wedging the floodgates open to two late tries – but I don’t feel at any stage they were a real threat to win. The Roosters were as predicted very flat, and with only one consistent playmaker in their team they played to my projections and were significantly overvalued.

 

Best Value

Gold Coast Titans
Titans

This will be three weeks in a row for the Titans as a best value team. As much as I dislike picking the same team consecutively, there isn’t a whole lot of value on the board and with a Storm line-up that screams smokescreen the odds as they stand will shorten significantly. Offensively I’ve really enjoyed the way they’ve played so far this year, and the cohesion they’ve found in both the halves and hooking rotation has given me confidence. Their defence is another story, but a Storm line-up potentially missing Smith is not an offence I fear.

Odds: $2.88 v Storm; Line: +6.5.

Cronulla Sharks
CShark

I’ve held a conservative view of Cronulla for most of the year. Their mid-season streak involved several close games and fortunate instances, and yet with the dissolution of some other top teams and their consistent performances, they’re clearly one of the four best teams in the league. They face a Knights team which I’ve consistently overvalued throughout the year, and playing at home I have them as a significant value team despite the short odds.

Odds: $1.36 v Knights; Line: -8.5

 

Worst Value

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Cbull

The Bulldogs have been the value darlings for most of this year, and yet the consensus has now shifted after their win against the Warriors with most understanding this team is a quality outfit since their midseason shakeup. I also really like the position the Dragons face at the moment; while losing Vaughan is a big blow to their forward rotation, a quality team with their back against the wall can be highly-motivated.

Odds: $2.40 @ Dragons; Line: -4.5

Wests Tigers

Tigers

This game will be a rollercoaster and I’m unsure about where it will be headed. I haven’t liked the Tigers all year, their offensive structures are abysmal, and they were winning early in the season with an unsustainable rushing defence which is now failing. Manly on the other hand are entering a field of uncertainty with turmoil on and off the field. I’m not sure of a play either way on this game – but I know I would not outlay any funds on a shorter priced favourite in a game like this.

Odds: $1.53 v Sea Eagles; Line: -5.5

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