Value Finder – Round 25
A quick note about me: I’m a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis some of which I’ve started to share.
The purpose of these threads is to identify which teams current have gambling value, and which teams do not. A team’s value is subject to several external factors; recent performance, line-ups, strength of opponent, venue, rest, club stability, motivation, expected crowd, travel, where the bookies set the odds and how the public influence the odds with action after the market opens.
Although the bookie edge for a head-to-head market is around 5%; you can still find value weekly in the NRL by using a combination of statistical and subjective analysis.
Performance so far this year
If you had an initial investment of $100, and staked $10 per game:
Best Value
You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 60.5%;
| Team | Odds | Outcome | Stake | Win | Running Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs (Rd 6) | $3.20 | WIN | $10.00 | $32.00 | $122.00 |
| Bulldogs (7) | $2.70 | LOSE | $10.00 | $112.00 | |
| Eels (7) | $2.35 | WIN | $10.00 | $23.50 | $125.50 |
| Dragons (8) | $1.81 | WIN | $10.00 | $18.10 | $133.60 |
| Panthers (9) | $1.82 | LOSE | $10.00 | $123.60 | |
| Bulldogs (10) | $2.00 | WIN | $10.00 | $20.00 | $133.60 |
| Warriors (10) | $1.75 | LOSE | $10.00 | $123.60 | |
| Rabbitohs (10) | $2.40 | WIN | $10.00 | $24.00 | $137.60 |
| Broncos (11) | $2.40 | WIN | $10.00 | $24.00 | $151.60 |
| Storm (11) | $1.47 | LOSE | $10.00 | $141.60 | |
| Raiders (12) | $1.73 | WIN | $10.00 | $17.30 | $148.90 |
| Knights (12) | $2.70 | LOSE | $10.00 | $138.90 | |
| Cowboys (13) | $2.05 | WIN | $10.00 | $20.50 | $149.40 |
| Knights (14) | $3.20 | LOSE | $10.00 | $139.40 | |
| Knights (15) | $3.82 | LOSE | $10.00 | $129.40 | |
| Bulldogs (15) | $1.69 | LOSE | $10.00 | $119.40 | |
| Samoa Line (Rep) | $1.92 | LOSE | $10.00 | $109.40 | |
| QLD Line (Rep) | $1.92 | WIN | $10.00 | $19.20 | $118.60 |
| Roosters (16) | $2.20 | LOSE | $10.00 | $108.60 | |
| Titans (16) | $2.65 | WIN | $10.00 | $26.50 | $125.10 |
| Storm (17) | $1.58 | WIN | $10.00 | $15.80 | $130.90 |
| Raiders (17) | $1.45 | WIN | $10.00 | $14.50 | $135.40 |
| Knights (18) | $2.10 | WIN | $10.00 | $21.00 | $146.40 |
| Broncos (18) | $1.65 | LOSE | $10.00 | $136.40 | |
| Raiders (19) | $3.00 | LOSE | $10.00 | $126.40 | |
| Sea Eagles (19) | $2.60 | LOSE | $10.00 | $116.40 | |
| Bulldogs (20) | $2.85 | WIN | $10.00 | $28.50 | $134.90 |
| Titans (20) | $2.80 | WIN | $10.00 | $28.00 | $152.90 |
| Broncos (20) | $1.80 | WIN | $10.00 | $18.00 | $160.90 |
| Knights (21) | $2.10 | LOSE | $10.00 | $150.90 | |
| Rabbitohs (21) | $2.20 | WIN | $10.00 | $22.00 | $162.90 |
| Titans (22) | $3.00 | LOSE | $10.00 | $152.90 | |
| Bulldogs (22) | $2.30 | LOSE | $10.00 | $142.90 | |
| Rabbitohs (22) | $1.91 | LOSE | $10.00 | $132.90 | |
| Titans (23) | $2.85 | WIN | $10.00 | $28.50 | $151.40 |
| Bulldogs (23) | $2.55 | WIN | $10.00 | $25.50 | $166.90 |
| Titans (24) | $2.88 | LOSE | $10.00 | $156.90 | |
| Sharks (24) | $1.36 | WIN | $10.00 | $13.60 | $160.50 |
Worst Value
You would have an ROI of -51.40% ;
| Team | Odds | Outcome | Stake | Win | Running Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks (Rd 6) | $2.55 | LOSE | 10 | $90.00 | |
| Broncos (6) | $2.55 | WIN | 10 | $25.50 | $105.50 |
| Panthers (7) | $1.49 | LOSE | 10 | $95.50 | |
| Knights (7) | $2.60 | WIN | 10 | $26.00 | $111.50 |
| Sea Eagles (8) | $1.60 | LOSE | 10 | $101.50 | |
| Cowboys (8) | $1.42 | LOSE | 10 | $91.50 | |
| Eels (9) | $2.20 | LOSE | 10 | $81.50 | |
| Sea Eagles (10) | $2.58 | WIN | 10 | $25.80 | $97.30 |
| Raiders (11) | $3.25 | LOSE | 10 | $87.30 | |
| Cowboys (11) | $2.05 | LOSE | 10 | $77.30 | |
| Eels (12) | $2.70 | LOSE | 10 | $67.30 | |
| Titans (12) | $3.60 | LOSE | 10 | $57.30 | |
| Tigers (13) | $1.80 | LOSE | 10 | $47.30 | |
| Sea Eagles (14) | $2.30 | LOSE | 10 | $37.30 | |
| Sea Eagles (15) | $3.25 | LOSE | 10 | $27.30 | |
| Broncos (15) | $2.50 | WIN | 10 | $25.00 | $42.30 |
| Fiji Line (Rep) | $1.92 | LOSE | 10 | $32.30 | |
| Broncos (16) | $1.65 | WIN | 10 | $16.50 | $38.80 |
| Sharks (18) | $1.67 | WIN | 10 | $16.70 | $45.50 |
| Tigers (18) | $3.15 | WIN | 10 | $31.50 | $67.00 |
| Panthers (19) | $1.96 | LOSE | $10 | $57.00 | |
| Eels (20) | $4.20 | LOSE | $10 | $47.00 | |
| Storm (20) | $1.31 | WIN | 10 | $13.10 | $50.10 |
| Broncos (21) | $1.30 | LOSE | 10 | $40.10 | |
| Panthers (21) | $1.38 | WIN | 10 | $13.80 | $43.90 |
| Dragons (22) | $1.45 | LOSE | 10 | $33.90 | |
| Tigers (22) | $2.40 | WIN | 10 | $24.00 | $47.90 |
| Cowboys (23) | $3.10 | LOSE | $10.00 | $37.90 | |
| Roosters (23) | $1.40 | LOSE | $10.00 | $27.90 | |
| Tigers (24) | $1.53 | WIN | $10.00 | $15.30 | $33.20 |
| Bulldogs (24) | $2.40 | WIN | $11.00 | $26.40 | $48.60 |
Last Week
Best Value – Titans, Sharks
A mixed-bag for the value finder last week, but such is the volatility of sports gambling. The Titans performed admirably and certainly held value at their $2.88 price, however their offence was unable to generate points. They managed to hold the Storm to 10 points defensively, but as mentioned in last weeks thread this was more a product of the Storm’s offensive failures through missing players and not largely due to the Titans defensive structures. The Sharks won comfortably, and the market ended up closing much shorter than $1.36 after key exclusions from the Knights, although similarly to the Cowboys the week prior the Knights were able to hang with the Sharks until very late in the game.
Worst Value – Tigers, Bulldogs
Although the Tigers were able to defeat the Sea Eagles on Thursday, I was largely vindicated by avoiding them after an almighty collapse. The Bulldogs however held some of the best value this season. I’ve always held the thought that how a team responds to adversity can illustrate a great deal about their quality. The Dragons looked solid defensively in the beginning and were able to hold out a clunky Bulldogs offence, and yet as soon as the Bulldogs were able to score once after several sets on the Dragons line, the game was over.
Best Value
Parramatta Eels
It must be said that I’m not usually someone willing to hitch a wagon to a team likely to end up with the wooden spoon, however Parramatta’s current price has an element of value. This game may come down to motivation; Parramatta are playing to avoid the wooden spoon, and the Roosters are playing to either gain the minor premiership (should the Storm lose) or playing to avoid a first-round match in Melbourne (should the Storm win). The results of previous games are likely to influence this match, and while the Roosters are an immeasurably better team, $4.50 is a heavy price for a match with uncertainty.
Odds: $4.50 v Roosters; Line: +12.5.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Canterbury once again tear into this game as outsiders despite their exceptional performances in the weeks prior. The Sharks turbulent week is likely to influence the result, and by the time this game is played it’s possible they have no feasible avenue to improve their ladder position should the 3 teams above them win. Again, playing markets in the last round of the year is risky based on motivational factors, yet even still the Bulldogs are a team who have proved their ability consistently this year.
Odds: $2.62 v Sharks; Line: +5.5
Melbourne Storm
A large crowd on a Friday night in Melbourne playing for a minor premiership against a team which is degrading the longer the season draws on and is not close to the quality of the Storm
Odds: $1.60 v Panthers; Line -4.5
Worst Value
North Queensland Cowboys
Sentimentality is the death of value and rational thinking. I’ve enjoyed the Cowboys late-season value as their forward rotation has found their feet, and yet this current price is an enormous gamble on a team which has shown itself hard to trust. If this was a usual away game, the Titans would be favourites – and granted the allegiances of the crowd are likely only heading in the Cowboys direction, yet $1.53 favourites are something else.
Odds: $1.53 @ Titans; Line: -4.5
Wests Tigers
The timing of this game is largely the most important factor. The Rabbitohs despite their slump are playing for a potential minor premiership, and more importantly attempting to dodge a Melbourne semi-final. The Tigers on the other hand have essentially nil to motivate themselves after dropping out of finals contention.
Odds: $3.10 @ Rabbitohs; Line: +8.5
