Using a combination of statistical analysis and subjective influences to predict gambling value in head-to-head markets each week in the NRL
Performance so far this season:
Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +33.00% Profit on Investment. Winning 61.11% of Tips with combined odds of $2.39
Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: -3.30% Profit on Investment. Winning 53.85% of Tips with combined odds of $1.95
Canberra Raiders $2.15
The Raiders are without a couple of key players, namely Rapana and Bateman, however hold strong value returning back to Canberra after 3 weeks on the road. Despite conceding 30 points last week against the Roosters they have an elite defence which should be well equipped to frustrate a roaring Rabbitohs attack. The Bunnies in recent weeks have yet to really face a defence which has made them work for points, in the last 5 weeks they have played: Cowboys (15th defensively), Broncos (10th defensively), Panthers (12th defensively), Bulldogs (14th defensively), Warriors (13th defensively), so while they do have an exceptional attack the Raiders may pressure their offence in ways they haven’t experienced for a number of weeks. Underdogs, at home, in a likely cold night in Canberra I think the Raiders have outstanding value
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles $2.45
This is a nice position for the Sea Eagles. They’ve managed to craft a resolute defence under Hassler which has enabled them to grind their way to wins despite their injuries, and now they’re starting to take shape as a functional NRL team again. Croker returning to partner Elgey gives them two adequate halves, Fonua-Blake who is one of the best props in the NRL is back and a hungry Walker is slots into the centres. The Sharks have been determined yet largely underwhelming and despite being at home this is much closer than the implied probability of odds suggest.
Gold Coast Titans $1.67
I’m not a big motivational gambler, but this tip is largely based on motivation. The Titans were embarrassed last week in a FTA-game where the Sharks essentially rolled-over and should’ve been beaten. Their decision-making was deplorable and like always their defence had holes shot through it. Returning to C-BUS, against the only team in the league worse than themselves after the embarrassment of last week should see them motivated and determined, if they don’t their season is over.
New Zealand Warriors $2.10
The Warriors yo-yo heads to Penrith after showing some promise and winning last weekend. While their win against the Dragons was impressive, I think it had as much to do with McGregor’s woeful mishandling of his bench than it did with Warriors excellence. Having the Warriors in any tip is a volatile gamble given their motivation goes up and down constantly but playing away after a somewhat hollow win is a nice spot to take the other side.
North Queensland Cowboys $1.70
I’m baffled The Cowboys are favourites heading into the game. They’re teetering on the edge of no return for this season. Every week they are handicapped with the promise of them getting it together finally, and yet it’s near on 18 months and it hasn’t happened. They have a handful of outstanding players; Morgan, Taumololo, McLean, but are consistently let-down by a schematically poor offence and below-average defenders. I’m not a fan of Asiata playing five-eighth, he has been roasted defensively playing wide on the goal-line and struggles to handle strong angled runners. Their right-edge is just as bad with the immobility of Hess and Scott defending next to each other. The Eels are coming off a drubbing and are clearly the better side, there’s always the possibility the Cowboys stumble into some individual brilliance but consistency is all but a dream for them at this point.
|Sea Eagles (7)||$2.28||WIN|
|Sea Eagles (4)||$2.45||WIN|
Originally posted on r/NRL Punters thread u/cookedcowboys