Clear the Obstruction

Value Finder | Round 11

Using a combination of statistical analysis and subjective influences to predict gambling value in head-to-head markets each week in the NRL

Performance so far this season:

Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +27.50% Profit on Investment. Winning 57.11% of Tips with combined odds of $2.34

Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: +14.70% Profit on Investment. Winning 60.00% of Tips with combined odds of $1.94

BEST VALUE

Newcastle Knights $2.90

Newcastle have progressively improved throughout the season as their line-up has found continuity and established combinations. Separating Pearce and Ponga in the halves has allowed both to succeed, Pearce as the possession-dominant halfback and Ponga as the left-side dominant fullback. Defensively they have also improved beyond measure and handicapped as heavy outsiders at home in front of what will be a large Friday night crowd is not fair, albeit against the best team in the NRL. This will be the Roosters third consecutive game on the road against quality opposition and they could be prone to fatigue off the back of two high-intensity games.

St George-Illawarra Dragons $1.91

A high-risk play given their team-list changes and recent performance but there’s enough logic behind the Dragons having value. Gambling on a team’s response to embarrassing losses and player exclusions can be difficult, but I think we’ve seen enough from this Dragons outfit to know the quality of football they can play when motivated, and motivation should be at an all-time high. They’re also in Wollongong facing a disappointing Sharks team which has been poor in recent weeks

WORST VALUE

Melbourne Storm $1.24

Regardless of the teams playing, be cautious of heavy, heavy away favourites. There’s not much to say in this match-up, the Storm are significantly better, but the NRL is extremely volatile week to week and the risk of playing a team this short in an away game far outweighs the small benefit. The Storm also haven’t been flawless this season, they have had structural and motivational issues and have at times been unconvincing. They almost got gunned down at home by this Bulldogs team earlier in the season, they did get gunned down by a depleted Sharks team a few weeks ago, and they probably should’ve been gunned down last week at home by the Tigers. Given their yoyoing motivation this season, I’d be wary of taking the Storm in any matchup against a team where they might become complacent.

Parramatta Eels $1.40

The Eels and Panthers are two interesting teams to handicap, one has been largely poor apart from two blistering performances at home, the other a projected finals side who is laying eggs every week. We only have a two-game sample of the Eels at Bankwest Stadium, it’s their home, but there’s no reason to believe it gives them any more of a home-field advantage than most other teams. The Eels didn’t throw a punch offensively last week and have struggled to compete on that side of the ball while the Panthers have struggled to do basically anything. Penrith are well past ‘will they turn it around?’ territory but the NRL is unpredictable and they do have the tools to win, the Eels as we’ve seen also have the tools to lose, and I do not have the confidence to take them as a heavy-favourite.

History

Best Value:

Team Odds Outcome
Broncos (1) $2.28 LOSE
Rabbitohs (1) $2.48 WIN
Bulldogs (4) $5.75 LOSE
Dragons (4) $2.10 WIN
Tigers (4) $2.50 LOSE
Sharks (5) $2.55 LOSE
Titans (5) $2.30 WIN
Storm (6) $1.91 LOSE
Titans (6)  $1.91 WIN
Bulldogs (6) $3.40 LOSE
Sea Eagles (7) $2.28 WIN
Warriors (7) $1.91 WIN
Eels (8) $1.95 WIN
Raiders (8) $1.65 WIN
Rabbitohs (8) $1.52 WIN
Raiders (9)  $3.25 LOSE
Knights (9)  $1.60 WIN
Broncos (9) $1.60 WIN
Raiders (10) $2.15 LOSE
Sea Eagles (10)  $2.45 WIN
Titans (10) $1.67 LOSE


Worst Value:

Team Odds Outcome
Cowboys (1) $1.85 WIN
Panthers (1) $1.55 LOSE
Sea Eagles (4) $2.45 WIN
Cowboys (4) $1.90 LOSE
Storm (5) $1.33 WIN
Bulldogs (5) $2.65 LOSE
Eels (5) $2.40 LOSE
Panthers(6) $2.20 LOSE
Tigers (7) $1.63 WIN
Knights (8) $2.34 WIN
Bulldogs (8) $2.00 LOSE
Storm (9) $1.42 WIN
Sharks (9) $1.65 WIN
Warriors (10) $2.10 WIN
Cowboys (10) $1.70 WIN

Originally posted on r/NRL Punters thread u/cookedcowboys