Using a combination of statistical analysis and subjective influences to predict gambling value in head-to-head markets each week in the NRL
Performance so far this season:
Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +27.50% Profit on Investment. Winning 53.85% of Tips with combined odds of $2.28
Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: +12.10% Profit on Investment. Winning 61.11% of Tips with combined odds of $1.85
Still well above break-even for best value selections with set staking, yet have hit an exceptional hot-patch with worst value tips winning 6 of the last 7 after a great start to the year.
Not an exceptional week value-wise with some pretty fair markets across the board, but here’s where I’ve gone:
Canberra Raiders $1.91
This is a nice spot for this Raiders team from a value perspective and it could be one of the last times we’ll see them have such a healthy price at home. I think the Raiders are the better side in this game and are heavily undervalued because of their performances while dealing with extensive injuries. When Bateman has played this year they are a transformative defensive unit and while Hodgson is still out Havilli is an exceptional defender and the addition of Sezer at half only moves to improve their quality. I also think this Sharks side is a good match-up for them regardless of what recent history would suggest, the Sharks offence is geared around shifting the ball to the edges with Townsend playing pivot through the middle allowing most of the attacking sets to function wider. The Raiders edges swallowed a similar offensive style last week from the Tigers, and I think they can stifle the Sharks. The Sharks are also a tiny bit of fools gold at the moment, while they have played well in patches they’ve also caught teams at opportune times and I’m still unconceived of their potential touting as a top-4 side.
South Sydney Rabbitohs $1.50
The Rabbitohs are a better team than the Panthers but their deflating loss last week against the Knights coupled with a couple of Panthers victories has allowed the Bunnies to swell with some value. The Rabbitohs do also have a couple of key outs but I have mild confidence in their replacements and often injuries do not leak into performance immediately due to increased motivation from ancillary players. The Panthers are also a slightly overvalued asset at the moment coming off some solid wins, but still have vital flaws in their game.
NZ Warriors $1.80
As much as I don’t like the Titans coming directly off an underdog win, I can’t see value in this Warriors side as an away favourite. Their forwards have been largely underwhelming in recent weeks and the Titans have shown they can win on collision and territory with their forward strength. As the Broncos found out the Titans main fatal flaw is their goal-line defence and unless you can gain adequate territory to expose it, it’s difficult to beat them – and I do not have enough faith in the Warriors ability to do this. Like every year the Warriors are high-variance and yo-yo from week to week, with that comes a level of inherent risk with any bet but this could be a poor match-up and coupled with articles citing gastro circling the team, I would avoid this price.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs $5
This is not nearly enough to entertain the thought of the Bulldogs toppling a heavily motivated Roosters team. It’s not often a team this long will feature as worst value but this seems well below an appropriate mark given both teams situations and motivation levels. Late last season the Bulldogs found a defensive identity through maintaining their line-up and fostering combinations, this year they are rotating key players week-to-week and have lost the one advantage low-expectation teams have – continuity. They’ve also dropped or benched quality defensive players like Corey Harawira-Naera and Lachlan Lewis and are now well and truly lost.
Originally posted as u/cookedcowboys on www.reddit.com/r/nrl