Clear the Obstruction

Value Finder | Round 15

Performance so far this season:

Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +26.60% Profit on Investment. Winning 53.57% of Tips with combined odds of $2.24

Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: +10.10% Profit on Investment. Winning 60.00% of Tips with combined odds of $2.01

Currently on the hottest streak of my life picking worst value teams that end up winning – 7 of the last 9 teams have won. Holding steadily with worst value selections still up 26.6% profit which will hopefully rise as we move out of State of Origin and have more clarity regarding teams.

BEST VALUE

Gold Coast Titans $2.55

Really interesting game; two teams who couldn’t be more different in the direction they’re heading. There is always a risk of the Titans turning up completely unmotivated, but after a disappointing loss in the game prior to the Warriors and showing significant fight off the back of losses this year it’s not as concerning. The Titans play well against teams who rely on their forwards for generating opportunities, the one area the Titans are an above average side is through the middle. If they can turn up and restrict Manly from prolonged goal-line pressure they are capable of winning.

Melbourne Storm $1.91

Pretty simple logic, I think these two teams are closely matched, the Roosters have a key big-out in Keary and the Storm will only have increased motivation after losing consecutively to the Roosters in the Grand Final and rematch. Played at a neutral venue, I think even-odds is slight value in the Storm’s favour.

Wests Tigers $2.68

The Tigers despite some clear mental lapses in games have not been as poor as their current value. They’ve shown some improvement offensively week-on-week and their defence is stable. I’ve also lost some confidence in the Bunnies, I know they’ve had key injuries and are integrating new combinations but some of their efforts have left me disappointed. The Tigers are capable of challenging this team and have the required tools to win.

WORST VALUE

St George-Illawarra Dragons $1.45

I just wonder if this is the game where it all falls apart for the Dragons. Their effort and play in their last game against Manly was poor and their play in general over the last two months of games has been exceptionally disappointing bar one lone performance against the Bulldogs. They have had injuries, and they have had a tougher than usual schedule with only 5 home games so far – but they’re teetering at the moment, and there’s danger in taking a short-priced favourite who is on the edge of the cliff.

Cronulla Sharks $1.30

Everything is looking up for the Sharks at the moment and that has seeped into their current value. While they are a significantly better team than Canterbury, they still have potential for teething issues – they’re integrating a couple of new combinations through their halves and centres and are overvalued until they display a marked improvement in play with their current line-up. I’m always wary of teams priced on theoretical or projected value because of line-up changes until they can demonstrate improvement.

Brisbane Broncos $2.20

Similarly to the Dragons this team is teetering. Their previous performances against the Titans and Eels were disappointing and they’ve only had one brief period of above-average play this season which was short-lived. Heading into a barn-burning game against the Knights away from home has me concerned – I think the Knights are a better side with a home-field advantage and my confidence in the Broncos current mental strength and ability to turn-up has waned.