Clear the Obstruction

Value Finder | Round 16

Performance so far this season:

Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +42.50% Profit on Investment. Winning 54.85% of Tips with combined winning odds of $2.07

Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: -5.40% Profit on Investment. Winning 56.52% of Tips with combined winning odds of $1.73

BEST VALUE

St George-Illawarra Dragons $2.90

This tip is largely based on motivational factors. This game is extremely important to the Dragons season, currently sitting in 10th with many of the teams around them having the bye, winning this game goes a long way to a potential finals berth. On the flip-side it’s largely inconsequential to Melbourne who are now 3 games clear in 1st and have been playing at an elite level for a long period of time. Thursday night, at a cold and potentially rainy WIN Stadium, sandwiched in between games against their two rivals (Roosters, Sharks) is a difficult motivational position. Both teams are missing an equal swatch of talented players, but the market heavily favours Melbourne possibly projecting their coaching and infrastructure to allow their replacement players to be more successful. This could be true, and the remaining players for Melbourne are an improvement on the remaining Dragons players but the exclusions make this game highly volatile as we try and project unknown variables. The known factors in this case are important; the Dragons are at home and they have much more to play for.

WORST VALUE

New Zealand Warriors $1.85

This is an unenviable position for the Warriors to be in, playing away, as favourites, against an undermanned team with most expecting them to win. I’m constantly concerned with the Warriors motivation and mental state game-to-game, and with how they have performed historically in these types of games the concern is warranted. The Knights also could galvanise in the face of losing key players like Ponga, Pearce and Klemmer, especially playing at home in a once-off game as incoming players bring heightened motivation. There is too much variability in this game to consider the Warriors as anything other than risky value