Performance so far this season:
Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +32.50% Profit on Investment. Winning 53.13% of Tips with combined winning odds of $2.07
Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: +3.10% Profit on Investment. Winning 58.33% of Tips with combined winning odds of $1.74
Newcastle Knights $1.44
While there is still some risk of exclusion, all Origin players are expected to play for the Knights and this is a very important game for them in the context of their season currently playing for a Top-4 spot. I expect them to be motivated, playing at home against the worst team in the competition. The Bulldogs are capable, but through sheer lack of talent are often only competitive when they catch teams at times when they’re not prepared to play, and I don’t think this is where the Knights are currently.
Melbourne Storm $1.27
Melbourne have been playing at an exceptionally high level for a very long period and post-origin, now 3 wins clear of 2nd they should be on the wind-down for the next handful of weeks before the finals. There’s also risk of Origin players being rested and despite it being Cam’s 400th, they’re incredibly short against a mostly-capable Sharks team. The Sharks from a value perspective are at an all-time low, while they have struggled integrating some key positional players improvement should be expected.
Sydney Roosters $1.24
Another short, short favourite. Playing at Gosford in a more neutral venue I don’t think the Roosters hold any value. Michael Morgan will not play and yet still the Cowboys through some very good forward play usually manage to compete against most teams and are capable of toppling them should things break their way.
Brisbane Broncos $1.55
A win against the Sharks seems to have buoyed the Broncos value slightly as they head back to Suncorp after a long stretch away. The Warriors usually have great support in Brisbane providing slightly less of a home-advantage and it’s difficult to have confidence in a Broncos team heading-in against an arguably better side in the Warriors.