Performance so far this season:
Best Value with 10% staking so far this season: +26.70% Profit on Investment
Worst Value with 10% staking so far this season: -10.65% Profit on Investment
Gold Coast Titans $2.70
This could be unhinged but I think the Titans hold value at home against the Broncos this week. They are a bad yet capable team and while Melbourne were always going to be a tough-ask given how they defend the ruck the Broncos are a significantly better match-up for them. Brisbane concede the 3rd most Run Metres on average per game, Melbourne the fewest – and generating territory is one of the only paths the Titans have to compete game-to-game given their poor goal-line defence should they fail to generate field-position and get pinned in their own half. They’ve already beaten Brisbane this season on a similar projection, and they should be expected to play with motivation given their coaching shuffle which is uncommon for a poor team late in the season.
Canberra Raiders $1.91
I discussed Canberra’s credentials and value last week and little has changed, they rank as a clear Top-3 side by most metrics and continue to project as a clear premiership contender. Their success is built defensively which we know in years past is a sustainable way to win consistently against good teams. They’re coming up against Penrith, who’s form this year has looked like this; LWLWLLLLLLWWWWWWW. They’re an interesting thought exercise, should we disregard their early-season struggles and only include their win-streak performance in our projection, or should we judge them from the whole totality of their season and attribute ‘form’ to statistical clustering and not rapid unexpected improvement? I definitely fall on the side of the latter. I think Canberra are a significantly better side jostling for a Top-4, potentially Top-2 position and hold value this week against a Penrith team who have projected value based off the potential fallacy of form.
Sydney Roosters $1.13
One of the shortest prices we’ve seen this season, and like normal it does not hold value. The price of $1.13 has the implied probability of the Roosters winning at a clip approaching 89%, and while the Roosters should be heavy favourites implying a team has such a high percentage of winning in the NRL is historically dangerous given the leagues volatility and parity even between the best and the worst.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles $3.30
Unfortunately I’ve been pushing the ‘Manly are overvalued’ barrel for a couple of weeks now and have yet to reap any rewards. Regardless, I still believe they are being priced as a significantly better side than most metrics would allow, they have had a very easy schedule and are tiered well below teams like the Storm, Raiders, Rabbitohs and Roosters. Their schedule becomes exceptionally more difficult starting this week against a rested Melbourne and their performances so far this season given their schedule advantages do not place them in good stead heading into this game. Beware taking Manly for the remaining season.